The roulette wheel

In my experience, only minorities of technicians can consistently and accurately determine future prices. However, even if you are unable to accurately forecast prices, technical analysis can be used to consistently reduce your risks and improve your profits.
The best analogy I can find on how technical analysis can improve your investing is a roulette wheel. I use this analogy with reservation, as gamblers have very little control when compared to investors (although considering the actions of many investors, gambling may be a very appropriate analogy).
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it, and when he can."- Mark Twain, 1897
A casino makes money on a roulette wheel, not by knowing what number will come up next, but by slightly improving their odds with the addition of a "0" and "00."
Similarly, when an investor purchases a security, he doesn't know that its price will rise. But if he buys a stock when it is in a rising trend, after a minor sell off, and when interest rates are falling, he will have improved his odds of making a profit. That's not gambling--it's intelligence. Yet many investors buy securities without attempting to control the odds.
Contrary to popular belief, you do not need to know what a security's price will be in the future to make money. Your goal should simply be to improve the odds of making profitable trades. Even if your analysis is as simple as determining the long-, intermediate-, and short-term trends of the security, you will have gained an edge that you would not have without technical analysis.
Consider the chart of Merck in Figure 1 where the trend is obviously down and there is no sign of a reversal. While the company may have great earnings prospects and fundamentals, it just doesn't make sense to buy the security until there is some technical evidence in the price that this trend is changing.

The future can be found in the past

If prices are based on investor expectations, then knowing what a security should sell for (i.e., fundamental analysis) becomes less important than knowing what other investors expect it to sell for. That's not to say that knowing what a security should sell for isn't important--it is. But there is usually a fairly strong consensus of a stock's future earnings that the average investor cannot disprove.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."- Sir Arthur Wing Pinero, 1893
Technical analysis is the process of analyzing a security's historical prices in an effort to determine probable future prices. This is done by comparing current price action (i.e., current expectations) with comparable historical price action to predict a reasonable outcome. The devout technician might define this process as the fact that history repeats itself while others would suffice to say that we should learn from the past.

Fundamental analysis

If we were all totally logical and could separate our emotions from our investment decisions, then, fundamental analysis the determination of price based on future earnings, would work magnificently. And since we would all have the same completely logical expectations, prices would only change when quarterly reports or relevant news was released. Investors would seek "overlooked" fundamental data in an effort to find undervalued securities.
The hotly debated "efficient market theory" states that security prices represent everything that is known about the security at a given moment. This theory concludes that it is impossible to forecast prices, since prices already reflect everything that is currently known about the security.

The human element

The price of a security represents a consensus. It is the price at which one person agrees to buy and another agrees to sell. The price at which an investor is willing to buy or sell depends primarily on his expectations. If he expects the security's price to rise, he will buy it; if the investor expects the price to fall, he will sell it. These simple statements are the cause of a major challenge in forecasting security prices, because they refer to human expectations. As we all know firsthand, humans are not easily quantifiable or predictable. This fact alone will keep any mechanical trading system from working consistently.
Because humans are involved, I am sure that much of the world's investment decisions are based on irrelevant criteria. Our relationships with our family, our neighbors, our employer, the traffic, our income, and our previous success and failures, all influence our confidence, expectations, and decisions.
Security prices are determined by money managers and home managers, students and strikers, doctors and dog catchers, lawyers and landscapers, and the wealthy and the wanting. This breadth of market participants guarantees an element of unpredictability and excitement.

Faktor Manusia(Indonesia'

Some history

The term "technical analysis" is a complicated sounding name for a very basic approach to investing. Simply put, technical analysis is the study of prices, with charts being the primary tool.
The roots of modern-day technical analysis stem from the Dow Theory, developed around 1900 by Charles Dow. Stemming either directly or indirectly from the Dow Theory, these roots include such principles as the trending nature of prices, prices discounting all known information, confirmation and divergence, volume mirroring changes in price, and support/resistance. And of course, the widely followed Dow Jones Industrial Average is a direct offspring of the Dow Theory.
Charles Dow's contribution to modern-day technical analysis cannot be understated. His focus on the basics of security price movement gave rise to a completely new method of analyzing the markets.

Latar Belakang(Indonesia)'

Technical analysis

Should I buy today? What will prices be tomorrow, next week, or next year? Wouldn't investing be easy if we knew the answers to these seemingly simple questions? Alas, if you are reading this book in the hope that technical analysis has the answers to these questions, I'm afraid I have to disappoint you early--it doesn't. However, if you are reading this book with the hope that technical analysis will improve your investing, I have good news--it will!

Analisa Teknikal (Indonesia)'

TERMINOLOGY

For brevity, I use the term "security" when referring to any tradable financial instrument. This includes stocks, bonds, commodities, futures, indices, mutual funds, options, etc. While I may imply a specific investment product (for example, I may say "shares" which implies an equity) these investment concepts will work with any publicly traded financial instrument in which an open market exists.
Similarly, I intermix the terms "investing" and "trading." Typically, an investor takes a long-term position while a trader takes a much shorter-term position. In either case, the basic concepts and techniques presented in this book are equally adept.
"Words are like money; there is nothing so useless, unless when in actual use."- Samuel Butler, 1902

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The truth that no man is an island certainly holds true here. This book would not be possible without the help of thousands of analysts who have studied the markets and shared their results. To those from whom I have compiled this information, thank you.
There are two people who have helped so much that I want to mention them by name. Without John Slauson's editorial and research assistance, this book would not have been published until the next century; And Denise, my wife, who has been an active participant in my work for more than a dozen years.

PREFACE

Over the last decade I have met many of the top technical analysis "gurus" as well as shared experiences with thousands of newcomers. The common element I've discovered among investors who use technical analysis, regardless of their expertise, is the desire to learn more.
No single book, nor any collection of books, can provide a complete explanation of technical analysis. Not only is the field too massive, covering every thing from Federal Reserve reports to Fibonacci Arcs, but it is also evolving so quickly that anything written today becomes incomplete (but not obsolete) tomorrow.
Armed with the above knowledge and well aware of the myriad of technical analysis books that are already available, I feel there is a genuine need for a concise book on technical analysis that serves the needs of both the novice and veteran investor. That is what I have strived to create.
The first half of this book is for the newcomer. It is an introduction to technical analysis that presents basic concepts and terminology. The second half is a reference that is designed for anyone using technical analysis. It contains concise explanations of numerous technical analysis tools in a reference format.
When my father began using technical analysis thirty years ago, many people considered technical analysis just another 1960's adventure into the occult. Today, technical analysis is accepted as a viable analytical approach by most universities and brokerage firms. Rarely are large investments made without reviewing the technical climate. Yet even with its acceptance, the number of people who actually perform technical analysis remains relatively small. It is my hope that this book will increase the awareness and use of technical analysis, and in turn, improve the results of those who practice it.
"Information is pretty thin stuff, unless mixed with experience."-Clarence Day, 1920